The Houston Texans enter their offseason with fewer question marks than they had over the last two seasons, particularly at running back, where they may have found a star in Dameon Pierce.
The Texans have revamped most position groups on their roster, as they are in the midst of a rebuild. However, they've hired a coach we believe they will keep past his first season, drafted a quarterback to be the presumed franchise guy, and added the top overall player in the draft to their young-and-upcoming defense. For Texans fans, this is good news.
One area that they did minimal work on is the running back position group. They signed former Buffalo Bills leading running back Devin Singletary to a one-year, $2M contract. He is the presumed third-down back and will spell 2022's starter, Dameon Pierce. Pierce is the reason the Texans have done little to their running back room, as the former fourth-round selection out of Florida was the lone bright spot on an otherwise abysmal offense.
Week in and week out, he excited the fan base and fantasy football owners. His tenacious style of play, grit, and talent were a joy to watch. But, unfortunately, his rookie season was cut short as the Texans put Pierce on injured reserve on December 17. Despite only starting in 13 games as a rookie, Pierce amassed 939 yards and four touchdowns as a first-year back.
Despite this success, some have wondered if the Texans would draft University of Texas star Bijan Robinson, which the team ultimately did not do. This notion brought up some fanbase members needing clarification on whether they could trust Pierce's performance from last season to carry over into future years. With that in mind, we will take an in-depth look at Dameon Pierce, his abilities, and his injury history and project his second season with the Texans.
The talent is there with Pierce.
Honestly, I was shocked and elated that the former Florida Gator fell to the Texans in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL draft. Pierce was hardly utilized at Florida, mustering only 172 snaps in his final season. But, boy, oh boy, did he take advantage of those snaps, as he finished the season with 574 yards on the ground to go with 13 touchdowns. He did all of this on only 100 carries.
Of every running back in the country, Pierce ranked first overall by PFF as a runner, with a grade of 93.5. Of his 574 yards, 365 came after contact and was an overall wrecking ball. Again, I have no clue why he was only given 100 touches, but I am grateful that his lack of experience led to him falling in the draft.
Pierce did many of the same things as a professional but could have been better. After contact, he still earned most of his rushing yards, 722 out of 939, but fell short in scoring and overall run grade. His final run grade by PFF was 84.8, the 15th-highest grade. By Pro Football Focus' standards, Pierce was a middle-of-the-pack running back.
Comparing him to the elite running backs in the league.
When you adjust for players with 200 carries or more, Pierce moves up to the eighth-best back in the league. Based on the eye test, the eighth best is where I would argue he falls as well. Pierce has yet to be the all-around superstar running back like Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffery, Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones, Tony Pollard, or Saquan Barkley, the seven backs ahead of him. Could he become that? Yes.
Their ability to force missed tackles and get yards after contact makes those running backs elite. While Pierce's injury cost him valuable playing time, we can use his averages to compare best. Amongst those elite running backs, Pierce ranked fifth in average yards after contact at 3.28 yards. He also forced a whopping 62 missed tackles, good for fourth, despite playing five fewer games than the next guy. The highlight of his chase for contact has to be the 'Good Morning Football's' angriest run of the year.
Austin Gayle posted a graphic on Twitter showing Pierce's dominance, names in red ranked inside the 80th percentile in both forced missed tackles per carry & yards after contact per attempt (via PFF):
Names highlighted in red ranked inside the 80th percentile in both forced missed tackles per carry & yards after contact per attempt (via PFF) pic.twitter.com/xQ63OuNopB
— Austin Gayle (@austingayle_) May 17, 2023
Lastly, elite running backs can break away and score from anywhere on the football field. PFF has a stat called the breakaway percentage, which measures the percentage of times the running back had a carry that was rushing yardage on designed attempts for more than 15 yards. Pierce ranked tenth here, with 29.6% of his designed rushes hitting that mark. That is a higher percentage than Cook, Henry, Austin Ekeler, Jones, and Jacobs.
The injury woes.
Pierce was never fully healthy during his rookie season despite all his greatness. He had a lingering ankle injury during the middle chunk of the season and eventually injured it enough in a week 14 matchup against the in-state rival Dallas Cowboys.
Some question if Pierce's violent style of play will lead to future injuries, but this was only the second time Pierce has ever had to miss a week due to injury. He missed one week due to a head injury in college.
I understand the fears with his play style and history. Still, the Texans brought in Singletary and revamped their offensive line, leading to a lower workload and a more controlled running environment for Pierce to pick his contact. Texans' fans should be excited to have 31 back healthy at the start of the season, ready to lead an improved Texans' offense hoping to make some noise this season.
My final prediction
With an entire season ahead of him and a clean bill of health, Dameon Pierce should register a top-eight or better rushing season. My final statistical prediction for him would be 275 carries, 1,200 yards, and 11 touchdowns. Don't be surprised if he finishes the year above the majority of AFC running backs and makes a pro bowl. Based on the metrics we looked at, this guy could wreak havoc in 2023. Honestly, with the revamped offensive line and a clean bill of health, he has the potential to cement himself as a feature back in general.
What do you think? Was this a fair assessment of the Texans' running back? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below, or on Twitter; you can find us @Texans_TT or @manfreonair. You can also check us out on Facebook.