The Houston Texans made one of the boldest moves in franchise history by trading up for Alabama star edge rusher Will Anderson Jr and there were mixed reviews. The Texans gave the Arizona Cardinals the 12th and 33rd picks in the draft and next year’s first and third selections. Historically, that type of trade value is typically reserved for franchise quarterbacks, but the Texans got their star pass rusher.
To understand this trade value, we can’t look at it through an independent lens because the Texans took franchise quarterback C.J. Stroud with the second pick. By selecting Stroud, the Texans lowered the market value for the third selection. For the Texans to move from the 12th to the third pick, the package would have looked closer to what San Francisco gave up in 2020 to select Trey Lance. That package included three years of first-round selections as well as a third. The Texans gave up two firsts, a second, and a third. Had Stroud been the selection at three, the package would’ve looked similar to the one the 49ers made.
Is Will Anderson worth the Houston Texans deal?
We already know the Texans believe he is, so let’s convince ourselves.
For starters, Anderson is the best edge prospect we've seen in two years and more accomplished than any other edge in the last four years. Anderson produced a PFF grade of 89.8 in 2021 and 83.6 in 2022. Per PFF, 81% of the time Anderson rushed the passer he ended that play with either a TFL, sack, QB hit, or QB pressure. That means four out of every five plays, Anderson made an impact. Statistically speaking, the Crimson Tide star racked up 207 total pressures in three years at Alabama.
Historically, edge defenders who fill up the stat sheet in college tend to do the same in the pros. While I do not expect Anderson's numbers to mirror his college numbers, a drop-off would still be an incredible rookie year. Somewhere in the six to eight sacks range would be a very successful rookie season along with being the Texans' leader for tackles for a loss, QB pressures, and all-around havoc.
Let's look at Anderson in a vacuum against other draft-eligible edge defenders. Had the Texans not traded up for Anderson, they would have had to select an edge a tier below, possibly with the 12th pick, or wait until next year’s draft. The 2024 class does not currently have a projected, bonafide, top-tier edge rusher like Anderson. To wait or select a non-blue-chip prospect for the position would have been a much more significant risk and slowed the rebuild by a considerable margin.
While we definitely liked edge defenders such as Lukas Van Ness, Nolan Smith, and Will McDonald; each of them comes with considerable question marks in either experience, size, or pure ability. Anderson started as a true freshman for Nick Saban's defense. He was the best edge defender in college football all three years that he was there and played routinely against the best competition in football. Anderson also has the "it" factor as he played his best football in crunch time and in the playoffs.
What is next year's first-round pick really worth?
This is a hard question to answer because current draft picks are always worth more than future draft picks due to the unpredictability of next year. With the Texans already selecting C.J. Stroud as a franchise quarterback, they hope they'll win more games. The Houston Texans lost five games last year within one score. For as much flack as the team got, they were a high-effort team on the field that played hard most weeks.
The Texans are hoping that they can turn those five losses, at least half of them, into future victories with the help of new head coach DeMeco Ryans and his defense, as well as Stroud. If the Texans are right on Will Anderson, there's a very strong likelihood that the Texans, a team who won three games in their division, could very likely finish the year as a 7-win team.
This past year, four teams finished with seven wins. Their draft selections ranged from pick eight to twelve. There's a possibility the first-round selection the Houston Texans gave up could end up falling outside of the top ten in next year's draft.
The Texans needed to solidify the three premiere positions that a franchise needs: left tackle, quarterback, and pass rusher. In trading up for Anderson they completed an off-season of prioritizing filling those premier positions with blue-chip talent. With that in mind, who would the Texans be looking at with next year's first-round selection had they not gotten Anderson?
Currently, there is not an edge rusher in next year's class that's being talked about as the elite proven talent Anderson has been. No pass rusher will finish in the top five Heisman voting, the stats he produced, or the backing of a Hall of Fame coach in Nick Saban like Anderson had.
So when we view the future draft pick, whoever it may be, it's worth noting that the Texans chose to go with the more proven, highly decorated Anderson.