The Houston Texans aren't expected to win many games this coming season and some say they are they will be the worst team in the league. For me, I don't believe they'll be the worst and while I do believe they will win more this season than last, I don't expect many more than six or seven wins.
That's not a knock on the team. They have done a fine job of building this roster through free agency, the draft, and trades. They seem to be doing things the right way, with a good mix of youthful talent and veteran leadership.
For this team to continue their upward trajectory, they need some guys to step up in 2023. Some guys have been here for a few years but some of these rookies too. If the team can get solid contributions from some of the younger players and a breakout season or two from some of the young vets, these guys might pull off an upset or two.
It seems every year there is a group of players that exceed all expectations throughout the NFL and the hope is for the Texans they have one or two of those guys. I've listed five players here that I think could be potential breakout stars or exceed expectations, even from the Houston fanbase.
Nico Collins - Wide Receiver
This guy has been mentioned several times as a breakout candidate and I considered not including him on this list because he's already been talked about. However, that wouldn't fair to him to not continue heaping on the hype because he has a real chance to be that guy for the Texans.
Houston needs him to be that guy too. Their wide receiver room is full of talented guys with potential and one of them needs to rise to the top and become a true number one receiver. He's not the only option but is easily the best option. He combines the physical skils and NFL experience that C.J. Stroud and this offense will need.
Outside of a dominant offensive line, a rookie quarterback needs someone he can rely on, someone that can count on to be where he should be on the route and make a play on the ball, even if the pass isn't perfect. To use a term penned by Stefon Diggs, I think Nico Collins could be "him".
Henry To'oTo'o - Middle Linebacker
To'oTo'o has played well in the preseason and is currently listed as the backup to Denzel Perryman on the Texans' unofficial depth chart. I'm not saying that To'oTo'o is going to unseat Perryman as the starter, but I do think To'oTo'o will play a much bigger role this season than most expect and make some plays.
I liked him coming out of the draft from Alabama and thought the Texans got a steal in the fifth round when they selected him. With Perryman in front of him, he'll have a great mentor, a veteran he can really learn from. He'll be groomed as the future middle linebacker; however, given the Texans' depth at linebacker, it will not surprise me if Houston gives him a shot at one of the outside backers positions this season.
To'oTo'o has played 44 snaps in the preseason and PFF scored him a 69.3 in pass rush and a 70.5 in coverage; however, his run defense only earned him a 51.3, with an overall grade of 65.1. Solid ratings outside of the run defense for a rookie getting his first taste of NFL action.
John Metchie III - wide receiver
This will be Metchie's first season on the field, and there aren't too many more amazing stories than his. He's battled through a season-ending injury and most recently his battle with Leukemia. He is set to return to the Texans lineup and become an integral part of the Texans rebuild.
In his final season at Alabama, he recorded 96 receptions, 1,142 yards, and eight touchdowns and was the second-round pick of the Texans in 2022. Metchie is one of several young, talented, and unproven wide receivers on this team but has a chance to become a big part of this offense.
I think Metchie has a solid season and is a key part of the Texans passing offense. I don't think he'll be the number one target but he's going to make plays and be one reason this underrated receiving corps will turn heads this season.
Jonathan Greenard - defensive end/edge
Greenard didn't play much as a rookie, starting only one game and recording one sack and 19 total tackles. In his second season, he began to come on, starting 12 games, adding eight sacks and 33 totals, while adding nine tackles for a loss and 12 quarterback hits.
Last season was a step back, starting four games due to an injury that sidelined him in October 2022 and never really got going again. This year could be different and Greenard will be a force up front on the Texans defensive line.
He will benefit greatly from having Will Anderson Jr. on the opposite side because offenses will be forced to focus their protections on Anderson, which should leave Greenard with more one-on-one opportunities. Maliek Collins and Sheldon Rankins will help too, occupying blocks. Greenard will record double-digit sacks in 2023.
Juice Scruggs - Center
Scruggs is a vital part of the Houston Texans offensive line. The team gave up a lot to move up to draft him in this year's draft and regardless if you think they reached or not, doesn't matter at this point. He is essentially the quarterback of the offensive line, and he's got to do it as a rookie.
I was a fan of Scruggs coming out of Penn State and I think he will be a solid addition to the Texans line. So far, he's logged 34 snaps in the preseason and PFF hasn't been kind to him regarding his run-blocking, with a 56.5 grade but his pass-blocking is significantly better, with an 81.5.
Scruggs will improve his run block as the season goes and the fact that he's already doing well in pass protection bodes well for the team because the team's rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud will need to know he can trust Scruggs and his line to protect. That trust is huge in terms of building confidence in Stroud and allowing him to focus on his defensive reads.