The Houston Texans are a prime candidate to win the AFC South next season.
That’s going to seem like an inflammatory statement, but the AFC South has one of the more imposter-ish vibes out of all of them in the league. Those reasons are going to be discussed later on, but the Houston Texans can easily win this division.
With only the Jacksonville Jaguars having a higher pick, the Texans are set to benefit from their third overall pick and stability at quarterback with Davis Mills. In addition, Houston’s newest head coach, Lovie Smith, has had a knack for elevating defenses.
So as long as Jack Easterby doesn’t derail anything this season, there are three reasons why the Houston Texans can win the AFC South. Let’s start with the first one:
The Houston Texans didn’t give up that many yards to division rivals through the air in 2021
With a 3-3 divisional record last season, Houston played most of their games competitively against Jacksonville and Tennessee. However, Indianapolis had Jonathan Taylor to do the damage, and those games were both blowouts.
However, in those six games that Houston played against the AFC South, they only allowed two 300-yard passing performances (Trevor Lawrence in Week 1, Ryan Tannehill in Week 11). What’s even more impressive is that they only allowed an average of 245 passing yards per game.
In today’s NFL, you’re most likely losing a game if you pass for that much in a game. So maybe Houston’s pass defense wasn’t so bad after all.
The Houston Texans wide receiving corps will improve greatly
With Davis Mills making incredible strides in the latter half of the season, the Houston Texans saw glimpses of what Mills can do for the passing game. The problem is that Tim Kelly (now in Tennessee) was so run-happy in his play calls that it didn’t let Houston do what they do best: throwing the ball.
Magically, Brandin Cooks still had another 1,000-yard season, his second in as many years that he’s been in Houston. Chris Conley, Danny Amendola, and Nico Collins all had flashes of greatness too. Houston will take advantage of this by a more aggressive playbook from new offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton who will call for more deep strikes from Mills.
Mills was best when he was able to throw deep downfield and not be babied while on the field by being told to hand the ball off.
It’s not like the rest of the division’s pass defense is that much better. The only difference separating the four teams is a few hundred yards. So unless the division gets cornerback help, there is a serious chance Houston can steal a win or two next season.
Lovie Smith will elevate the rushing defense of the Houston Texans
The Houston Texans allowed the second-most rushing yards in the league with 2,418. Only Pittsburgh was worse than Houston. If a deal is done, Houston may get a big trade haul from shipping off Deshaun Watson.
Perhaps a star interior defensive lineman or run-stopping linebacker gets included in that trade. Perhaps the Texans have a chance to select Nakobe Dean somewhere within the first two rounds of the draft. Akiem Hicks, one of the best run stoppers in the entire league, is also a free agent.
Whatever happens, Smith will get this defense up to speed. They were the team’s best overall unit last year, and they should do the same in 2022. Improving the rush defense is critical in a division with Derrick Henry and Jonathon Taylor. Houston missed 124 tackles last season, an embarrassing number that will improve under Smith’s watch.
Forcing divisional teams to pass with less-than-optimal quarterbacks is the key to success. Especially if Carson Wentz stays another season in Indianapolis.