The AFC South sure had one of the more wild years of any division in recent memory.
An unexpected top overall seed, a coach that didn’t travel back with his team after a primetime loss, and an unexpected choking of a playoff appearance all happened around the Houston Texans.
After seeing the Jaguars and Texans fire their coaches on opposite ends of the urgency spectrum, a pre-free agency ranking is what’s in store. Looking at the AFC South, Tennessee still depends heavily on Derrick Henry. One could argue the same for the Colts and Jonathan Taylor as Taylor wound up as the league’s leading rusher.
As for Jacksonville, Doug Pederson was chosen after Byron Leftwich wanted no part of Trent Baalke. Houston, meanwhile, took the longest path to finding a head coach that, in the end, made a lot of NFL fans scratch their heads at the move.
Now that we have a nice reset, which team is the worst team in the AFC South?
Fourth place in the AFC South: It’s definitely not the Houston Texans
Jacksonville would have only two miracle wins on the year over Miami and Buffalo if it wasn’t for the Colts completely crumbling in a “win and in” situation in the season finale. Jacksonville played a handful of teams very close in 2021 and then would often follow that up with being blown out the following week.
Jacksonville still has a long way to go, and having the fourth-most cap space in the league is one way to get off on the right foot. In addition to that, Jacksonville has the first overall pick. But, of course, that’s all sunshine and roses until one remembers that Baalke is the GM in charge of drafting.
It will be another long year for Jacksonville, and they will most likely repeat for last in the division.
Third place in the AFC South rankings: The Houston Texans
Houston just edges out Jacksonville in these rankings, and here’s why. For starters, as awkward as Nick Caserio is, Caserio has a much better track record as a GM than Baalke does. Caserio also got quite the contribution out of his draft class last year despite his first selection being in the third round (Davis Mills).
The Houston Texans had a slightly better offense than Jacksonville (30th compared to 32nd), and Brandin Cooks is the most dynamic player on offense between these two teams. Houston also had three of its four wins on the season come from within the division.
That included a surprising upset of the Titans in November and a very close game in the season finale as well. However, with the third overall pick and a solid coaching hire in Lovie Smith, Houston could be set to surprise a few more teams.
Houston has around $19M in cap space, so unless a Deshaun Watson trade happens that relives a lot of cap space, don’t expect Houston to make a big splash in free agency.
Tennessee Titans drop to second place in AFC South standings
The Titans got upset by Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals in the divisional round, going one-and-done for the second consecutive season. However, Ryan Tannehill has done a solid job in a career revival after arriving from the Miami Dolphins.
However, this Titans team can only go as far as Tannehill can go. Titans head coach Mike Vrabel pulled some “Vrabel magic” to win as many games as possible without Derrick Henry- and they did just that.
At the same time, Henry wasn’t the same coming back after his extended stay on the injury list, and it’s time for the Titans to get a quarterback who can throw Julio Jones more than one touchdown (that’s caught in the season finale of all games).
On top of that, the Titans are $6M over the cap, so there’s going to be more departures than additions for Tennessee. Mike Vrabel will have to work up the side of Smoky Mountains to get his team back to the divisional round.
The Indianapolis Colts will take the top spot in the AFC South
Indianapolis overcame an 0-3 start to the season and had the lead at the start of the second half in the games against Baltimore and Tampa Bay. Unfortunately, both games ended in crushing losses. However, even with Carson Wentz at the helm guiding the offense, they still put themselves in a position to win despite Wentz’s turnovers.
There is a ton of respect and credit due to Jonathan Taylor, the NFL’s leading rusher. Taylor looked unstoppable in the second half of the season, delighting fantasy owners with seven 100-yard games in the season’s final nine games.
While the Colts lost defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus to the Chicago Bears, anytime your defense is led by Darius Leonard, you’re in good hands. The Colts also have $37M in cap space, and that could help them bring in the piece that puts them over the top.
They’ll have to make an impact there, as Wentz played more than 70% of the snaps this season, which cost the Colts their first-round pick.