Houston Texans draft prospect: Pitt’s Kenny Pickett

Kenny Pickett could be the first offensive player off the board, and he could be a Houston Texans quarterback soon.

The Houston Texans are in a pickle sitting at the third overall pick pick-up. Do they stay put, trade down, offense, defense? So many questions are due to be asked after the season finale this Sunday, with the Tenessee Titans coming into town.

If Houston Texans general manager Nick Caserio is enamored enough to pull the trigger, Houston would end up with one of the best talents at the quarterback position, if not the best. This year, Pickett exploded onto the scene while breaking a handful of Dan Marino’s college records.

This would be a fascinating pick, as the Texans just drafted Davis Mils with their first selection in the 2021 NFL Draft. However, Mills has had his rookie struggles but at least has tied veteran Tyrod Taylor for wins on the season.

Would an 0-7 start to Mills career be the dagger that ends his career? Most likely not, but if you had to choose between Picket and Mills, you’re going to take Pickett. Every. Single. TIme. This isn’t a knock on Mills, who has made many doubters quiet down this season. But when you can get first-round talent, that’s what usually wins out in the war rooms on draft day.

Especially with the Houston Texans being ranked dead last in yards per game in the NFL, Pickett can provide that extra spark that Mills doesn’t have and get the offense rolling again. So let’s start the analysis of Pickett.

Kenny Pickett’s positives are what the Houston Texans need

Before we go any further, one thing bears repeating: Pickett broke a handful of Dan Marino’s passing records at Pitt. If breaking records of a player of that caliber indicate how well one will perform in the NFL, that’s an excellent start.

As for his positives:

• Eyes are always downfield, always reading, never telegraphing throws with his eyes
• Has the ability to extend plays outside of the pocket
• Able to get enough torque on his throws to throw across his body on the run and executes well
• Anticipation is phenomenal, putting the ball on the receiver’s hands when coming out of their breaks/ cuts
• He has the right amount of touch to loft passes downfield where only his guys have a shot at it
• Can bullet the heck out of the ball and squeeze it into a tight window

Pickett has been compared to Derek Carr by ESPN’s Mel Kiper, but I don’t see that at all. Carr has never been as mobile and a running threat that Pickett is. Joe Burrow has also been a comparison for him.

So far, Pickett is his own man and obviously unique. Before we head to the negatives, we have to drop this clip in here as well:

Negatives the Houston Texans would have to overcome

This is purely a neutral analysis of Pickett and what he brings to the table. However, one item of housekeeping needs to be taken care of. One former NFL draft scout says that Pickett will be a bust due to his 2021 season being an outlier, but more so because his hands are reportedly smaller than many quarterbacks within the last 37 years.

That scout is clearly biased, and it’s not like every single one of those passers on that list inspire good feelings. Just because Paxton Lynch and Nathan Petermann had big hands doesn’t mean anything, and look how they turned out.

Negatives

• Pocket presence may not be that calm, creating pressure when it’s not there
• As good as he is throwing against the grain and his body, it’s a cardinal sin that costs him from time to time
• Pickett may be too risky in throw selection for some
• Has gunslinger-like mentality which leads to a lot of big risk, big reward plays

Summary

Some may say that Pickett is just a one-year wonder. That might be true down the road, but it doesn’t mean that the Houston Texans should avoid Pickett. We’ve seen teams have their guy in their sights but choose to go with someone else, and it usually comes back to haunt them.

They should take him if Pickett is the top-ranked guy on Houston’s draft board. Then, it would become an offensive-heavy draft to support your new franchise quarterback. Pickett’s negatives could be eased with a big-spending day on the offensive line and his weapons around him.

Pickett has the tools to be a first-round pick, and extending plays is his forte. Therefore, Houston would not be in the wrong to select him with the third overall pick.