Who has a worse future: The Houston Texans or Jacksonville Jaguars?

The Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars face off again on Sunday.

With both squads at the stoplight known as their 2-11 record, this Sunday could change the future for both of these teams. The Houston Texans sit at the third overall spot, while Jacksonville holds one place above them with the second overall selection.

Defensive players will be at a premium in a draft that features a lesser-desired quarterback class than expected. Especially within the first two picks, as Jacksonville does not need another quarterback (they drafted Trevor Lawrence last year), and the Detroit Lions could also pick a defensive player with the first overall pick.

So which of these two teams has the better future? Is it the Houston Texans who are battling arguably the biggest set of allegations against a professional quarterback that’s ever played in the NFL?

Or is it the Jacksonville Jaguars, whose coach has been making the news for all the wrong reasons- estranging his locker room seemingly by the day? Answering that question will be the purpose of this article, with analysis over the following topics:

• The current state of each team, the outlook for the rest of the 2021 season
• How much will one draft position change each team’s future?
• How do the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars compare in Expected Points Added, and if that can be overcome in 2022
• And the ultimate, bad football-personnel cage match: Jack Easterby vs. Urban Meyer.

This will be fun comparing some of the “best of the worst” teams in the NFL. So, which team has it worse? So, let’s get right into our first topic.

Can the Houston Texans or Jacksonville Jaguars end 2021 on a good note?

For Houston, the troubles started when Deshaun Watson grew frustrated with the hiring of Nick Caserio and David Culley. If having a disgruntled franchise quarterback wasn’t bad enough, the sexual assault and misconduct allegations that came next were the gasoline to the fire.

For Jacksonville, hiring Urban Meyer was a questionable move at best. Instead, the hiring and then firing of former Iowa Strength and Conditioning coach Chris Doyle is what set the Jaguars’ season ablaze with impending doom and controversy. On top of that, a torn ACL for first-round selection, Travis Etienne, doomed the offense even more.

When it comes to team ranks, there are some exciting results:

• Houston ranks:
  • 32nd in rushing defense (dead last with 1,923 yards allowed)
  • 17th in passing defense
  • 31st in passing offense
  • 32nd in rushing offense

  The Houston Texans have been historically bad when it comes to scoring points this year, having just scored a handful of more points than the 2000 Cleveland Browns, who were in reboot mode after coming back to Cleveland one year prior.

  Houston’s 1,008 yards rushing this year are the worst by any team since 2000 as well. Laremy Tunsil and the other plethora of injuries to the offensive line put another win for Houston in jeopardy.

  Jacksonville is only doing slightly better in all categories than Houston

  • Meanwhile, Jacksonville’s rankings are:
    • 21st in rushing defense
    • 16th in passing defense
    • 28th in passing offense
    • 23rd in rushing offense

    Having Lawrence as your quarterback instead of the likes of Tyrod Taylor, Davis Mills, and Deshaun Watson (who will ride the bench for the entire year) will make your offense instantly better. Just imagine if this team never lost Etienne during the preseason. Lawrence’s ability to extend plays has probably helped this number, as well as garbage-time yards when games were already decided.

    So which team will finish 2021 better than the other?

    The answer: Jacksonville.

    Houston faces a gauntlet of playing the Chargers, 49ers, and the Titans. At the same time, Jacksonville gets to play the Jets, Patriots, and the Colts. As a result, the Jaguars could very well win their next two games and possibly take themselves out of the top five.

    All stats are taken from Pro Football Reference.

    

    The outcome of this game could significantly change the Houston Texans’ plans in the future.

    Seeing that the Jaguars are three-point favorites this weekend, the Texans could be moving up the draft order with a loss. However, barring any weird tiebreaker, the Jaguars would have one more win than the Texans do.

    Adam Schefter reported on Sunday that the Texans would base their first-round selection based on Mills’s success (or failure). If Mills does well, a defensive player will be the pick and vice versa.

    Whereas the Jaguars could play themselves out of the second-overall spot, and If we go by the earlier prediction that the Jaguars will win their next two games, they could be as low as the fifth-overall spot. When these teams are as bad as they are, one pick could change everything.

    Earlier this year, I examined if the Houston Texans made the right choice in 2006 when they took Mario Williams over Reggie Bush. The same question can be asked when Jacksonville chose Blaine Gabbert over J.J. Watt in the 2011 draft.

    If Mills fails and the Texans want to draft a quarterback, they’ll have to choose from a class that doesn’t bring much excitement as other classes have done in the past.

    

    The expected points added for both the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars are not good.

    Expected points added (EPA) is an advanced football metric that may be unfamiliar to some readers, so let’s break it down with help from The 33rd Team. EPA’s definition on their website is as follows:

    "Expected points added is a measure of how well a team performs relative to expectation. For example, if a team starts a drive on the 50-yard line, its expected points to start the drive would be about 2.5. If the team ends the drive with a field goal, thus gaining 3 points, its EPA for that drive would be found by subtracting its expected points from how many points it actually gained, 3 – 2.5 or 0.5 EPA."

    It’s a system that gives a numerical value that continues to add up as a team marches down the field. The more positive a team’s EPA is, the more likely it is that said team will be scoring more points. When it comes to Houston and Jacksonville, those numbers are one of many ways to show how bad both of them are.

    With help from our friends at PFR, we can see that the current EPA values for both teams:

    • Houston Texans: -103.07 (32nd)
    • Jacksonville Jaguars: -45.69 (29th)

    Neither of these teams has been very efficient with the ball; either they are converting on later downs or going backward. Davis Mills is 31st in the league amongst quarterback EPA, with a wimpy 9.5 EPA. Lawrence is slightly better at 27th overall, with 25.8 EPA.

    The winner: With these numbers known, Jacksonville has a much better futuristic outlook than Houston if it had to be given off of this metric alone. No stat tells all, but when your team is young, and you’re looking for a way to measure their effectiveness, this gets the job done.

    

    Who has destroyed their franchise more? Jack Easterby or Urban Meyer?

    At this point now, we all know what role Jack Easterby has played in destroying the Houston Texans’ empire. The primary catalyst that got rid of DeAndre Hopkins in one of the worst trades in NFL history presents a tough matchup for Jaguars Head Coach Urban Meyer.

    With Meyer, you got the whole “lap dance” situation after a Thursday night loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, multiple stories of him losing the locker room, and the poor body language that happened after his latest loss to the Tennessee Titans.

    Jaguars owner Shad Khan is a nice guy, but he had no idea what he was doing when he hired Urban Meyer. Let’s not forget this cringe right here too:

    
    The winner: This page could go on and on comparing how bad these two are for each team. In the end, it’s no doubt that Easterby has destroyed this Texans franchise, and it’s still highly questionable why he’s still around. Time will tell on how long Meyer lasts in the NFL as well.

    The Texans take this loss going forward, as the Watson saga has no end in sight and there’s no telling how much damage that will do to any free agents or coaches that want to come here. It’s going to be a rough time in Houston for a long time to come.

    Hopefully, you enjoyed comparing the best of the worst, and it’s not the most orthodox way to do it, but it sure was fun—more than the upcoming game this Sunday.