The Buffalo Bills haven’t missed a beat from last season’s AFC Championship run. That doesn’t mean the Houston Texans can’t steal a win.
Ah yes, the team that Tyrod Taylor saved from mediocrity in 2017 with a playoff appearance and then Josh Allen has furthered that development into making the Bills an actual Super Bowl contender. The Bills are coming off back-to-back wins over the Miami Dolphins and Washington Football Team.
The Bills really should be 3-0, but somehow they are the same team that lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1. If anyone saw Pittsburgh play on Sunday, then you’re wondering how that was even possible.
So where are the Buffalo Bills susceptible when they take the field against the Houston Texans in Orchard Park, New York on Sunday? There are a few positions that were weak spots coming into the season, and those haven’t really changed all that much.
If the Houston Texans can take advantage of these weaker position groups, then expect a close game and potentially an upset win for the Texans. This is only going to happen if the injury report allows the return of a handful of key players like Safety Justin Reid, and wide receivers Nico Collins and Danny Amendola.
Missing Taylor as the starting quarterback is going to really hurt, as evident by the Browns game where Taylor had the Texans competing for a big win until his injury happened. Davis Mills, now with an NFL start underneath his belt is going into another gauntlet- this time on the road.
The Buffalo Bills running game isn’t too crazy for the Houston Texans to stop
The Bills are coming off a 2020 campaign where their leading rusher barely had 700 yards last season. Singletary averaged 42.9 yards per game in an offense in which throwing the ball is synonymous with breathing.
Devin Singletary was that leading rusher for the team last season, and so far through three games, Singletary is averaging 60 yards per game. Statistically better, but most of those yards came in the first two games. When the Houston Texans were stacked up against Christian McCaffrey last week, many thought Houston would be steamrolled.
Technically that didn’t happen due to the injury McCaffrey sustained, but up until that had happened, CMC had not been much of a threat. The defensive effort from this part of Lovie Smith’s game plan must carry over.
Buffalo’s usage of personnel is more spread out through 2021 as opposed to last year, where they ran 71% of their plays in 11 personnel. A look here shows where they’ve diversified (change the year in the upper left-hand corner first to 2021).
Buffalo still relies on a zone scheme and wide receivers to chip in their efforts blocking as well. Blocking a lot is one of the reasons Stefon Diggs wanted out of Minnesota. So if the Texans can keep gap responsibility, shed blocks on the perimeter, and make Buffalo beat them by throwing the ball, then the Texans can get home to Allen and disrupt him with their defensive line.
The secondary isn’t what it’s hyped up to be
Outside of Tre’Davious White at the cornerback spot and Jordan Poyer at the Safety position, Buffalo has lacked playmakers to help fortify their secondary. Relatively unknown (outside of Buffalo) players such as Levi Wallace and Taron Johnson have had their flashes but have been inconsistent in play.
Through the 2021 season, Wallace and White have been targeted the most (13 times). They’ve allowed 15 completions for 120 yards and have one interception so far on the year. That is a small sample size, so looking back at last year’s stats will help us understand where the weaknesses really are.
Johnson and Wallace let up more than 1,000 yards between the two of them last year with a combined passer rating of 87.75% when targeted. Mills should look to get the ball to whoever has either of these Bills defenders on them.
Even when Micah Hyde has made plays in the past, he’s allowed more than half of the passes thrown his way to be complete. Hyde and White also had issues tackling last season, accounting for 15 of Buffalo’s 125 missed tackles last season.
Yards after the catch (YAC) will have to be the name of the game, as 45% of the yards Buffalo allowed last season came after they allowed a completion. Quick screens and slants can help get the Texans playmakers into space to deal maximum damage.
On an additional note, star linebacker Tremaine Edmunds sat out last week’s win over the Washington Football Team. If Edmunds plays this week, it wouldn’t hurt to run routes at him and see how he’s holding up.
The Houston Texans will free Davis Mills and let him throw
We all know that the first 27-something minutes of the first half for the Houston Texans offense last week was an embarrassing, despicable, and safe route taken by Offensive Coordinator Tim Kelly.
It wasn’t until a two-minute drill in which there were more aggressive plays called and that’s where Mills led a touchdown drive capped by zinging a ball to Anthony Miller right before the half. When going up against the nitrous-oxide-fueled Buffalo passing attack, the only way to keep pace with them is to play their game.
That means throwing the ball over and over again. If Mills can get some help from the offensive line, then he’ll have time to lead scoring drives. Mills hasn’t yet been known to scramble in the NFL, so keeping a clean pocket is imperative to winning this game.
When it comes to the Bills pass rush, they’re just like the Panthers. Not a single person to fear, but a lot of decent players that are put in the right position at the right time by Leslie Frazier, their Defensive Coordinator. The Bills have 9 sacks through three games.
Come Sunday, it will most likely be a blowout. If the game is close, these reasons will play a huge part in doing so. Houston is hoping to have a chance in this one, just like they did last week.