The Houston Texans will beat the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1.
As the NFL’s first-ever 17-game season kicks off, the Houston Texans will welcome the Jacksonville Jaguars to town. Despite some projections claiming that Jacksonville will have a better season than Houston, that’s not going to happen- and it starts with a Texans Week 1 victory over the Jaguars.
The Texans currently lead the all-time series 25-13, having swept Jacksonville each year dating back to 2017. The last Jaguars wins were both in 2017, both of which were one-sided affairs as Jacksonville roared its way to the 2017 AFC Championship game.
Houston Texans General Manager Nick Caserio and first-year Head Coach David Culley have this Texans team ready to perform in 2021. A great 2-1 preseason record doesn’t carry much in weight, but it went a lot better than Texans fans were thinking. Don’t be surprised if the Texans can score some upsets this year.
Jacksonville enters with a 1-2 record from the preseason, and after having lost Travis Etienne, first-overall pick Trevor Lawrence is going to be without his college teammate for the first time in years.
Not to mention that Urban Meyer (also in his first NFL season) has come under fire for the way he’s running the ship down in Jacksonville. The newest trend it seems is to hate on Meyer’s approach to his roster.
A lot can happen over the course of a game, but this is one the Houston Texans should win without too much struggle. Here are the 3 reasons they’ll be 1-0 after their first game of the year.
The Houston Texans defense is lightyears better than the 2020 squad
When the Houston Texans went out on defense last season, they were awful. Awful to the point that they allowed 30 or more points in eight of their 16 games last season. In this preseason, they only allowed 44 points across the entire preseason. That’s 14.6 points per game, which isn’t bad when your backups are doing most of the work.
Look for Houston’s defense to clamp down on rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence and make his first regular-season NFL game as much of a nightmare as was his National Championship matchup against the Joe Burrow-led LSU Tigers.
The Houston Texans defense forced 10 turnovers in the 3 preseason games, surpassing their regular-season total from the year before. Expect more of this against an inexperienced Jaguars team that’s trying to figure out how to walk before they can run.
Defensive Coordinator Lovie Smith has a way of transforming defenses. When he took over in Chicago, his defense forced 17 interceptions and 5 touchdowns in his first season in 2004. If history repeats itself, then the Texans will be giving the ball back to their offense with way more chances to score.
That leads us into our next point, as the offense looks to get out a hot start this season.
The Houston Texans run game will out-gain the passing attack
When the Texans defense was giving up so many points per game last season, one of the reasons they were able to have seven losses by one score or less was the fact that Deshaun Watson led the NFL in passing yards. While those may not all be quality-time yards, you still have to throw and connect on passes to lead the league for a reason.
Of course, by now, we all know that Watson is going to be the QB3 for the team for the season. It’s no knock against Tyrod Taylor or Davis Mills, but they’re not Watson for a reason. Hence why Houston decided to keep so many running backs on its roster as Offensive Coordinator Tim Kelly looks to run the ball more often.
The Jaguars were the 30th-ranked rushing defense last year, while the Texans were dead last. With a more balanced approach, the Texans will run for at least 150 yards on the ground in this game while scoring two touchdowns.
Mark Ingram and Scottie Phillips will lead the way in rushing yards for the team. Rex Burkhead will probably be a fantasy vulture and take a 1-yard touchdown away from Ingram- that was a common occurrence when Burkhead would do the same to James White in New England.
The special teams of the Houston Texans will change the game
As the NFL continues to do its best at eliminating any impact that special teams have on the game at the NFL level, it magnifies each and every play. So much to the point that one great punt return can be seen as a turning point in a game, and a missed extra point is sometimes a fatal blow as a team attempts a comeback.
Frank Ross, the Texans Special Teams Coordinator was formerly with the Indianapolis Colts for the 2020 season. His impact has already been seen in the preseason. Kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn was perfect on the year before sitting out the final game as a precautionary reason after he pulled a muscle in his leg. Even then, starting Safety Justin Reid handled kickoff duties extremely well.
Nothing to see here, just Texans *safety* Justin Reid booming the opening kickoff to the goal line 💣💣 pic.twitter.com/Ira9p65Q0z
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) August 29, 2021
There’s also the fact that Texans had a great 43-yard punt return by Desmond King against Green Bay and a blocked field goal against Tampa Bay in this preseason. Blocks are especially hard to do, and if the Texans can keep up this string of performances, look for the specials unit to win them a few games.
Final score: Texans 27, Jaguars 14.