The Houston Texans enter the 2021 NFL Draft with more questions than picks, so lets take a look at how they got here.
At the moment, when it comes to the 2021 NFL Draft, Houston Texans fans are like the kids attending a birthday party. They received an invite and will get to eat some cake, but they have to watch someone else open gifts. The best outcome is maybe getting lucky with a goodie bag to take home.
The Houston Texans have draft picks of course, but at least for Day 1 of the 2021 NFL Draft, they are just spectators. Not all great players come from the first round, but having an opportunity to pick sooner rather than later gives a better chance at top end talent. Plus, it is just more fun for fans to look forward to their team’s first round pick.
Examining the draft capital of every NFL team, from the Dolphins (1,352 points) to the Bills (190 points), using the excellent pick value chart developed by @PP_Rich_Hill. pic.twitter.com/rCK3UDNkPj
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) April 16, 2020
No first round pick, again
The more recent moves from the Houston Texans front office — the Bill O’Brien regime specifically — have been discussed regularly. The Houston Texans franchise have become a running joke due to the repeated head scratching moves. While O’Brien is gone and now in Alabama, the problems he left behind are not.
The Texans enter the 2021 NFL Draft without a first round pick for the third time in four seasons. Those missing picks have been turned into Deshaun Watson and Laremy Tunsil. Watson cost the team an additional first rounder in a trade up with the Cleveland Browns, which became the No. 4 pick the next season. And of course, the Tunsil trade sent two first round picks, including the No. 3 pick this season, to Miami. Miami has since traded that pick to the San Francisco 49ers.
In a vacuum, one would think fans would be happy to have a franchise quarterback and his personal bodyguard in exchange for those picks. The purpose of the draft is to find players like Watson and Tunsil. At least in the case of Watson, the going rate for quarterbacks would say that a player of his caliber came at a bargain.
Unfortunately, its just not that simple. The Houston Texans are coming off of a 4-12 season with these players being healthy, and a cap situation that required a ton of care from new general manager Nick Caserio. Even without the chaos currently surrounding the team’s signal caller, this roster needs life support in the form of draft picks.
Turnover on defense
These past few seasons the Houston Texans have had huge turnover in both numbers and names. There was of course the Deandre Hopkins trade that ultimately cost O’Brien his job. But, the defense has lost several key contributors over the past few seasons. J.J. Watt has joined Hopkins in Arizona, but he is just one of a few big names.
In the 2018 season the Texans went 11-5 and the defense featured five players who had made at least one Pro Bowl: Benardrick McKinney, Tyrann Mathieu, Jadeveon Clowney, Jonathon Joseph and Watt. By the start of the ’20 season, only McKinney and Watt remained, and the team went 4-12. Now, they are all gone, and the team is searching for long-term replacements.
The Texans have used a few “early” draft picks on defense recently. Last season, the team drafted Ross Blacklock and Jonathan Greenard in the second and third rounds. The previous two NFL drafts they looked to help the secondary with Lonnie Johnson in the second round of ’19 and Justin Reid in the third round of ’18. Outside of Reid, the other three have struggled to either get on the field or perform consistently.
New defensive coordinator Lovie Smith may be able to tap into the potential these players have. But it isn’t just a hope, its a necessity. Most of the signings made by Caserio were short term and seem to be “prove it” deals. So these young guys will have their work cut out for them. Competing not just for time this season, but to maintain their place in the plans going forward.
So Many Questions
The biggest question will be the status of Pro Bowl quarterback Deshaun Watson until things get resolved with his current off-the-field situation. That situation is completely up in the air, as is his playing status this season, his status as a Houston Texan, and his future. What is happening with Watson is a franchise’s worst nightmare.
With no early picks, the idea of drafting a potential replacement isn’t even an option. While it was rumored that the Clemson product could return multiple first round picks recently, it seems incredibly unlikely that he moves prior to the draft. If I had to guess, Tyrod Taylor will be the team’s starter at quarterback in 2021.
In a world where Watson does suit up this season, he would be without his favorite target Will Fuller. The speedster moved on from Houston and signed with the Miami Dolphins. The Notre Dame product was known to miss time with injuries, but his presence as a deep threat will be missed. Brandin Cooks remains on the team, and would likely be the number one option for whoever is running the show.
As mentioned, the defense will have a new look, both in names and in philosophy. The former Chicago Bears head coach will bring his Tampa 2 system to Houston as defensive coordinator. Caserio has brought in a bunch of bodies, but I’m sure that Smith and new head coach David Culley would like to find young playmakers to build their defense around.
What’s the Answer?
The general idea of the NFL Draft is to find cost efficient talent. Bring in young players that will be on affordable contracts, and put together a winner before too many come up for new deals.
The Houston Texans have given themselves less chances to do that in a process that is already largely based on getting lucky — and not only less chances, — but they will have to hit in later rounds on diamonds in the rough.
Houston could use the draft to take any position and it would make sense. Offensive tackle is probably the most secure and stable of any position on the team. Outside of that, the team just needs to add talent. Normally, Deshaun Watson would be the piece to build with and from, but the team doesn’t even have that to anchor their plans around.
In the end, this team has no clear answer for how to go forward. It can’t be stressed enough that their team’s future is mostly out of their hands right now. They can do their best to prepare and have things set up for any number of outcomes.
The NFL Draft is a tough process to get correct when everything else is going well. The truth is that this current front office was not set up for success. They are trying to analyze talent in a season that provides the least information on the incoming players.
Fans shouldn’t expect anything big to happen. There are just too many unknowns to see the team to go all in this year. For now, Round 3 will be the first time the team makes a pick.
It would be way more fun to see some Day 1 draft action, of course, but a move to get there would bring even more questions. Bank on sitting out the first round of the draft again Texan fan, better luck next year.