Which 5 Houston Texans non-stars will determine the team’s success this season?
Defining a team’s “X-Factors” like the Houston Texans can be tricky, but for all intents and purposes, let’s say that these are the players that create significant impacts on games without being recognized as the top performers on the team.
When you think of the current Texans, you would likely imagine the highest-profile stars like Deshaun Watson, J.J. Watt, Laremy Tunsil or even newly acquired Brandin Cooks and David Johnson.
However, who would you consider as the unsung heroes whose impacts often go unnoticed? This might include offensive linemen, rotational pass rushers, red zone receiving threats or depth pieces in the secondary. These are the players that traditionally sign mid-level contracts, have steady but unspectacular careers in the NFL and grade highly in terms of analytics but are rarely given credit by the national media.
Since Bill O’Brien became the official general manager of the Houston Texans, he has reconstructed the roster in his image that veers away from dependence on star players and is more well-rounded with depth and very specific skill sets. This is most notable with the new wide receiver group, which lacks a traditional superstar, but now runs four deep in terms of viable options that can all make a play during critical moments of games.
So with those terms set, who are the 5 biggest X-factors for the Houston Texans entering the 2020 season?
5. Gareon Conley — Cornerback
Gareon Conley has had an interesting but uneven start to his NFL career, starting with becoming a first-round draft pick by the Oakland Raiders in 2017. After being traded to the Houston Texans mid-season in 2019, he wound up being the team’s top-rated cornerback with a score of 64.5, per Pro Football Focus.
Conley was right ahead of fellow Texan Bradley Roby’s final score of 64.0, but in retrospect, they placed an uninspiring 57th and 60th league-wide, respectively. Due to his big-play ability and $12 million annual salary, Roby is the de facto No. 1 corner. However, the battle for No. 2 is Conley’s to lose.
The only real competition for a starting role comes from second-year player Lonnie Johnson, who graded out 115th out of 115 qualified cornerbacks and a miserable coverage score of 29.0. By comparison, Conley’s strongest attribute comes in man coverage, where he will likely be working against the opposing team’s secondary receiving options.
Though this offseason will be far different from most due to practice restrictions, having an entire seven to eight months learning Anthony Weaver’s scheme before Week1 will be beneficial to Conley’s development with the team. The secondary is the major weakness of the Texans’ defense, which means improved play from the former first-round pick could be a huge X-factor.
4. Tytus Howard — Right Tackle
Despite only being available for eight out of a possible 16 games, Tytus Howard’s rookie season was a resounding success. His performance in those contests earned him a spot on the Pro Football Writer’s Association All-Rookie Team, and the team managed a 6-2 record when he was on the field. After fielding a disastrous offensive line in 2018 featuring the likes of Julie’n Davenport and Senio Kelemente, the group up front dramatically improved to a respectable level last season.
That improvement was noticeable across the line when Howard was in the lineup, as the Houston Texans were the only team in the entire league with all five linemen posting a pass-blocking grade north of 70.0. Howard was the lowest of that group with a 70.4 grade, placing 15th among qualified right tackles, but he only allowed two sacks in 303 pass-blocking snaps. Though the Texans’ offensive line is by no means elite, having stability at the position that has traditionally been the team’s downfall makes a world of a difference.
Howard’s post-injury replacement, Roderick Johnson, is technically a higher graded overall player because of his run-blocking prowess, but the team is expected to integrate a much more pass-happy offensive game plan this season. Having Howard and his 6’5, 322-pound frame available all season would be a tremendous benefit for Deshaun Watson.
3. Darren Fells — Tight End
For most of his six-year career, Darren Fells has been an afterthought and a low-production tight end with a specific skill set. His stints in Arizona, Detroit and Cleveland were lackluster, never totaling more than 22 receptions, 315 yard, or three touchdowns in a season. He was able to break through for career highs in each of those categories during his first year with the Houston Texans, in which he managed 34 catches, 344 yards and an eye-popping seven touchdowns. Those statistics clearly don’t scream Pro-Bowler, but his value within the Houston offense cannot be understated, especially within the red zone.
Fells’ gargantuan 6’7, 270-pound frame makes him a mismatch against almost any defender, and with at least for other pass-catching weapons on the field around him, he will see a plethora of open looks. With Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, and Kenny Stills commanding attention downfield, Randall Cobb operating in the slot, and both Johnson running backs maneuvering the short passing game, who would be left to cover Fells in the middle of the field? His most successful plays last season came when Deshaun Watson extended the play, evading would-be tacklers or running fake QB draws, leaving Fells open for easy short-distance gains.
Darren Fells at 33 years old proved to be a luxury by ranking third among tight ends in terms of touchdowns. After being re-signed at 34 years old, Fells should not be slept on as an X-factor in the Texans offense.
2. Jacob Martin — Outside Linebacker
It remains to be seen whether or not Jacob Martin has done enough to lock down a starting role as an outside linebacker/edge rusher for Anthony Weaver’s Houston Texans defense, but his impact is sure to be felt this season.
After being traded to the Texans last offseason, Martin’s development was a slow process but his play surged in the back half of the year. Though his pure statistics don’t jump off of the page, his low usage rate shows that he was tremendously efficient considering the number of snaps he was playing. Out of 220 total snaps in the regular season, 175 of them came in pass-rushing packages compared to only 36 against the run.
Martin finished the season with 3.5 sacks, one forced fumble, three tackles for loss and seven QB hits, as well as another perfectly timed sack in the playoffs against the Buffalo Bills. When the pass rush unit is at full strength with J.J. Watt, Whitney Mercilus, Martin and newly drafted Jonathan Greenard, the potential for success skyrockets for the Texans.
The Houston Texans only totaled 31 sacks in 2019, tied for 26th in the league, Martin was third on the team right behind Watt. With a full offseason learning Weaver’s scheme and discovering his familiarity with his teammates, Martin can easily cross the five-to-seven sack plateau this season.
1. Duke Johnson — Running Back
Duke Johnson may never be a full-time featured running back in the NFL, but his ability to play multiple roles in the Houston Texans offense makes him one of the most elusive players around. Though he carries a similar skill set to the newly-acquired David Johnson, having two players that are both capable of making plays out of the backfield keeps defenses constantly guessing.
In limited snaps throughout 2019, Johnson graded out as the 15th highest-graded running back overall and surprisingly has the fifth-highest pure running score in the NFL. Johnson’s 4.9 yards per carry was ninth in the league among running backs and actually one spot higher than Christian McCaffrey of the Carolina Panthers.
As mentioned earlier with Darren Fells, having a plentiful group of pass catchers is always bound to leave at least one player open who can do damage in the open field. On 44 catches, Johnson attained 361 yards out of the backfield at 9.3 yards per catch, proving his overall versatility. It remains unclear how teams will respond to having both David and Duke Johnson playing somewhat similar roles, or if they will play at the same time in certain packages, but he is an invaluable asset nonetheless.
Pro Football Focus declared David Johnson the least elusive starting running back with NFL experience, which might ultimately pave the way for Duke to increase his snap count or overall playing time.
Overall, Duke Johnson is a significantly underrated playmaker for the Houston Texans and remains the biggest X-factor on the roster for the 2020 season.