Before signing receiver Cecil Shorts III to a two-year $6 million deal, the Houston Texans’ best and most likely option in the first round was to select a wide receiver. Now, the Texans can go in a variety of different ways because they do not have one major hole like they did without a viable second wide receiver.
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Just after signing Shorts, the Texans announced an agreement with Vince Wilfork. The ex-Patriot is a two time Super Bowl Champion, 5 time Pro Bowler, and an All Pro. But more importantly for the Texans, Vince Wilfork will be a mentor for third round pick Louis Nix III who missed his entire rookie season.
The Houston Texans have soaked up all cap space with the signings of Shorts and Wilfork. The attention now will shift to the 2015 NFL Draft on April 30. It will be interesting to see how owner Bob McNair, general manager Rick Smith, and head coach Bill O’Brien attack the draft, but these positions will be a point of emphasis:
1. Linebacker – Under Defensive Coordinator Romeo Crennel, the Houston Texans run a 3-4 defense. Despite entering the NFL Combine as a defensive end, last years top draft pick Jadeveon Clowney actually plays outside line backer for the Texans. With J.J. Watt and Jared Crick playing true defensive end, Clowney plays in a role lined up outside of either Crick or Watt depending on the formation (of course this is when Clowney is healthy).
Opposite of Clowney is line backer Whitney Mercilus who was graded as the worst 3-4 outside line backer in 2013. Last year, he was given more pass coverage assignments because of the pressure the rest of the Texans were able to bring. Mercilus will continue to be the linebacker who will cover tight ends, especially with Brooks Reed signing with the Atlanta Falcons.
Reed was a versatile player for the Texans the last few seasons because he could play inside or outside linebacker. Since he is gone, the Texans are in need of a replacement to be paired with Brian Cushing on the inside. The linebackers being mocked early in the draft are primarily edge rushers like Clowney who are not designed to drop back into pass coverage.
The Texans instead are looking for middle linebackers with at least some ability to drop back in coverage. Inside linebacker Eric Kendricks is my favorite fit early in the draft for the 3-4 defense. His strengths are quickness and pass coverage according to CBSsportsline.com. Kendricks is mocked to be a first or second round pick.
Inside linebacker Benardrick McKinney is visiting with the Texans and is a possible fit in the first round or possibly the second round, but does not have the pass coverage skills I expect the coaching staff is looking for. Other notable line backers to watch are Paul Dawson, Stephone Anthony, and Denzel Perryman.
2. Wide Receiver – Cecil Shorts is not the entire answer at the position but provides upside at a cheap price. He is only 27 years old, but his injury history is lengthy and has not shown to be a red zone threat (maybe because the Jaguars haven’t been in the red zone in about 5 years). Instead, Shorts is presumably going to be the slot receiver with Damaris Johnson filling in behind.
The taller and heavier the receiver is, the more efficient they are at scoring touchdowns. DeAndre Hopkins has good size, but the Texans need to find a 6’3″-plus rookie who can consistently win goal line fade routes. J.J. Watt has proved to be dominant at the goal line, but the Texans need somebody other than Hopkins for Ryan Mallett or Brian Hoyer to throw a jump ball to.
With the depth given in this 2015 draft at wide receiver, it makes sense to fill the “Y-Receiver” in Round two or three if Amari Cooper, Kevin White, and DeVante Parker are gone before Houston’s pick. Dorial Green-Beckham’s draft stock is hard to gauge due to the differences between teams in their willingness to roll the dice on a player with off the field issues. His size would be an ideal fit if Bob McNair is willing to give him a chance, especially if he falls to the second round. Other potential second round “big” receivers are Devin Funchess and Breshad Perriman.
Next: What Else Do The Texans Need In The Draft?
Nov 15, 2014; University Park, PA, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions tight end Jesse James (18) runs with the ball during the third quarter against the Temple Owls at Beaver Stadium. Penn State defeated Temple 30-13. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O
3. Interior Offensive Lineman – After releasing veteran center Chris Myers, the Texans are most likely placing last year’s left guard, Ben Jones to center. Jones has experience as a center and it shouldn’t be a difficult transition to change positions.
The bigger question mark is for last years second round pick, Xavier Su’a-Filo, who will slide into the starting spot at guard. Although I am a biased, USC Trojan undergrad, the ex-UCLA Bruin lineman was completely unable to show worthiness of being the 33rd overall selection in 2014’s draft. Even if he is able to start this year, the Texans will be looking to add depth to the interior. Duane Brown and Derek Newton are great starting offensive tackles on the exterior.
4. Running Back – We all know how great Arian Foster is, but also know his injury history. In order to keep Foster on the field, it is in the best interest to find a backup running back to start splitting the workload. Even a 75-25 split between Foster and a rookie back could lessen his risk of injury. Finding a pass catching running back a la the Shane Vereen type is necessary to help Foster’s hamstrings.
Another reason for drafting a reason is Foster’s contract, which is over in two seasons. I imagine the veteran running back will want to stay in Houston and his market value won’t be huge given his heavy workload. The Texans should be able to re-sign him after his contract is over, but may not want to if they can find his replacement within the next two draft classes.
Todd Gurley is the best running back available and would be a top 10 pick if he didn’t tear his ACL in his final season in college. Gurley’s stock is reportedly raising and now might be drafted before the Texans pick in the first round. Melvin Gordon is also a lock to be a first round pick and will be a future star.
If the Texans are addressing the position later in the draft like they did with Alfred Blue last year, then they could be looking at Jay Ajayi, TJ Yeldon, Duke Johnson, Tevin Coleman, Jeremy Langford, or Mike Davis. I expect the Texans to find a running back in the second, third, or fourth round.
5. Tight End – Last year, the Texans’ tight ends combined for a 32/316/3 stat line. That is horrible!!! Even John Carlson had 35 receptions and 350 yards for the Arizona Cardinals. Thats embarrassing because nobody outside of the greater Phoenix area knows who Carlson is.
The need for production from this position is even greater this year with Andre Johnson gone. Garrett Graham is not a great receiver and neither is Ryan Griffin. Last year, the Texans invested a third round pick in C.J. Fiedorowicz but he failed to produce anything last year. He only had 4 catches and 28 yards. Not a great start to his future.
This tight end draft class isn’t great. Maxx Williams and Clive Walford are the top two prospects but are expected to be selected at the end of the first or the second round. I highly doubt the Texans are willing to fill this need this early.
Instead, look for Jesse James out of Penn State. Coach Bill O’Brien has coached James during his brief stint at the university. James is a great fit with the Texans because he is massive. At the combine, he towered in at 6’7″ and 261 pounds. This type of size screams red zone production, something that I mentioned as a need above.
The versatility the big tight end brings is also a plus. Multiple times last year, James was used in the slot because his athleticism allowed him to run a wider variety of routes. In this highlight tape, he scored touchdowns from the slot where he exposed defenses out in space, where smaller defensive backs are forced to tackle somebody that weights 60-70 pounds heavier. CBSsportsline.com projects Jesse to be drafted in the third or fourth round.
Next: One Last Need
Jan 11, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos safety Rahim Moore (26) against the Indianapolis Colts in the 2014 AFC Divisional playoff football game at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The Colts defeated the Broncos 24-13. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
6. Safety – The final need for the Texans to address in this draft is Safety. The Texans were able to sign free safety Rahim Moore during free agency. This was a great move due to his strengths as a “ball hawk” because there will be pressure created up front. J.J. Watt, Wilfork, Crick, Clowney, and Mercilus will cause opposing quarterbacks to force deep passes that can be intercepted by the opportunistic Moore.
However, there is no depth behind Moore after Kendrick Lewis signed with Baltimore. Also, Danieal Manning does not appear to be re-signing with the Texans next year. This leaves a need for depth at free safety.
D.J. Swearinger is the starting strong safety and has improved since being drafted in 2013. We have seen his ability to absolutely crush opposing wide receivers and he can also come up and defend the run. His biggest problem has been in coverage and missing assignments on deep passes. T.Y. Hilton crushed the Texans this year by beating Swearinger down the middle.
The Texans don’t need to replace D.J. in this draft because the depth at this position is horrible. Landon Collins is by far the best safety in the draft but won’t be selected by Houston in the first round. The Texans just need to find value in a late pick to add some depth for Moore. Let Swearinger prove himself this year and if the problems aren’t fixed, then find a replacement in 2016.
WHAT ABOUT QUARTERBACK???
Well, the Texans have sparked a competition between Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallet after signing them each to two year deals. Coach O’Brien has history with both quarterbacks during his time in Foxboro with the Patriots. I expect a tight battle during the training camp but for the preseason games to declare a winner. Mallet is the favorite because he has far more upside than Hoyer and needs the in game experience if he wants to prove himself an NFL starter.
Another reason why quarterback is not on the list of biggest draft needs is because the quarterback class is horrible. Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota both have potential and are worthy of there first round grade, but the rest of the class does not have starting potential. There is not much of an upgrade from Tom Savage if the Texans select a quarterback later in the draft.
Next years quarterback class is interesting. Christian Hackenberg is considered to be the top-10 NFL prospect next year (if he declares early) and I expect coach O’Brien to keep a close eye on him all year. Of course Hackenberg and O’Brien have some chemistry together and it will be hard for O’Brien to stay away if Mallet and Hoyer prove to be not worthy of a starting role.
Other notable quarterback prospects for next year are Cardale Jones (OHIO ST), Connor Cook (MICH ST), Dak Prescott (MISS ST), Trevone Boykin (TCU), Kevin Hogan (STAN), and Cody Kessler (USC). This class is much deeper and it would be smarter to find a quarterback next year than to take one not worthy this year.